Reductions in Mortgage Interest Rates Stimulate Existing Borrowers
to Refinance: But Often For the Wrong Reason!
The usual reasons to refinance are to reduce the
monthly payment or to raise cash. The third option, which is
under-appreciated, is to shorten the period of indebtedness.
The third option is seldom used. Indeed, borrowers who refinance
into a new mortgage that has the same term as the original term of the
existing mortgage – a new 30-year supplanting an old 30-year, for
example -- extend the life of their mortgage instead of shortening it.
That is not the way to go for anyone who expects to retire someday.
A major reason that few borrowers refinance in order to shorten their
period of indebtedness is that the benefits are delayed and seldom
displayed. Where the first two options provide immediate feedback in
lower payments or cash-in-hand, benefits of the third option are
deferred for years. Indeed, unless the decline in mortgage rates has
been unusually large, the immediate impact will be a higher monthly
payment and/or upfront refinance costs to be paid. The long-run benefits
are nowhere calculated.
There are two. The major benefit, in addition to the psychic
satisfaction of being out of debt, is enlarged future borrowing power if
it is needed. As an example, if they need additional funds when they hit
62 and look to a HECM reverse mortgage to get it, every dollar of debt
remaining on their existing mortgage reduces the amount they will be
able to draw on the reverse mortgage dollar for dollar.
The second benefit, which arises from the decline in market interest
rates, is the reduction in cost. The cost of a new refinanced mortgage
carrying a shorter term will be lower than the costs of retaining the
current mortgage. Here is an example.
Prudence took a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of $320,000 at 4.5 % just
5 years ago. That gives her 25 years to go which she would like to cut
to 20 years, or even 15 years if that is possible.
On June 7, she could have refinanced into a 20-year mortgage at
3.125% with $5700 of upfront costs. Her new payment at $1636 would be
just slightly higher than the existing payment of $1621. But her total
costs over the next 20 years would be $398,000 compared to $486,000 if
she retains her current mortgage. In addition to being out of debt 5
years sooner, she will save $88,000 during the 20-year period.
Our mortgage system allows borrowers to select from a menu of
interest rates and upfront charges called “points.” This allows
borrowers with extra cash to reduce the monthly payment, or the reverse.
If Prudence does not have the $5700 upfront charge, for example, she
could largely eliminate it by accepting a rate of 4.125% and accepting a
higher monthly payment. Her savings in that case are reduced to $55,000,
but it is still a good deal.
Applying the same approach to a 10-year debt reduction, the cost to
Prudence would be higher but the cost savings would be correspondingly
greater. At the posted rate of 2.75% on a 15-year mortgage, she would be
obliged to increase her monthly payment by $166 and pay additional
upfront costs of $10,275, but she would save $120,000 over the 15 years
relative to her current mortgage. The major benefit, of course, is that
she would be out of debt 10 years earlier.
Differences in total cost over many years is not the ideal way to
measure refinance options. As the sum of monthly payments plus upfront
charges, it undervalues those charges. An alternative is to take the
present value of total costs, which I have done. This reduces the
refinance cost savings – it drops from $120,000 to $45,000 in the
example above -- but the conclusions are not affected.
Refinance Options Designed to Shorten Mortgage Life
(Market Prices as of June 7, 2019
Mortgage Feature |
Current Mortgage |
20 Year Refi |
15 Year Refi |
||
Option1 |
Option 2 |
Option1 |
Option2 |
||
Years to Payoff |
25 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
15 |
Interest Rate |
4.5% |
3.125% |
4.125% |
2.75% |
3.75% |
Monthly Payment |
$1,621 |
$1,636 |
$1,787 |
$1,980 |
$2,121 |
Upfront Costs |
0 |
$5,700 |
$421 |
$10,175 |
$73 |
Total Costs |
$486,000 |
$398,000 |
$429,000 |
$366,000 |
$382,000 |
Present Value of Total
Cost at 3% |
$342,000 |
$306,000 |
$323,000 |
$297,000 |
$307,000 |
Data drawn from www.mtgprofessor.com